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However, this rumor was actually already debunked by Pat Gelsinger himself several days prior to its publication, as he had confirmed on the earnings call that Meteor Lake would launch in 2023. It stated that the N3 tile for Meteor Lake would not go into production until Q4 2023, which would put its launch firmly into 2024. Meteor LakeĪnother recent report concerned Meteor Lake. Nevertheless, this means even Diamond Rapids was already (in name) on the roadmap before Pat Gelsinger joined. In that case, it would achieve a clear process advantage against AMD’s 3nm Zen 5. It has not been officially announced by Intel yet, but given Intel’s target for an annual cadence it is likely targeted for H1 2025 on the 18A node. Looking even further out, Diamond Rapids was originally scheduled for 2024, according to a roadmap that leaked in November 2020. As a compromise, the CPU did get pushed out further in time, launching in the first half of 2024 (if it launches on schedule, at least). For example, when Intel announced Granite Rapids at the February investor meeting, Pat Gelsinger noted how the CPU had been completely redefined, changing basically everything expect the name: it was part of a new platform, it was ported forward to Intel 3, and the CPU core itself even got a new architecture. Ultimately, this means that Pat Gelsinger’s influence will only gradually become more visible as time goes on. As such, although there are rumors that the general launch has been delayed until Q1'23, Intel has said that the broader ramp will occur in the second half of 2022. However, the catch is that this only pertained to one SKU, with the high volume SKUs apparently containing a security bug that needed to be fixed and caused those SKUs to be further delayed. Hence, Pat Gelsinger swiftly held the person who was actually responsible for the Sapphire Rapids mess accountable.įor completeness, Bob Swan had announced in Q3 2020 that initial production shipments were planned for Q4 2021, which ultimately became Q1 2022: a one quarter delay. In any case, Pat Gelsinger actually didn’t wait until the latest delays to take action, as he basically fired/replaced former data center executive Navin Shenoy in June 2021, which is the same month as when Intel announced the initial Sapphire Rapids slip to 2022. So given the time length involved with developing a new CPU, the reality is that, as other contributors have pointed out, there might be some more pain in the near-term as Intel works its way through its roadmap. Of course, though, as we now know due to leaks, Sapphire Rapids has since gone through 12 so-called steppings (iterations), reportedly fixing 500 bugs in the process.
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Hence, it would be foolish to blame Pat Gelsinger for a CPU that already booted Windows and Linux several quarters before he became CEO.
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Note that it already takes about a full quarter just to manufacture the CPU blueprints that were sent to the fab, which means Intel engineers sent the first iteration of Sapphire Rapids to the fab a full year before Pat Gelsinger became CEO. As a matter of fact, the initial Sapphire Rapids tape-out already powered on in Q2 2020, about 9 months before Pat Gelsinger would officially become Intel CEO. While it is sad to see Intel’s poor execution, most recently embodied in the failed Sapphire Rapids ramp, simply put investors should not blame Pat Gelsinger for this. In other words, the share price is being priced on near-term concerns, giving opportunities for long-term investors. If successful, investing in Intel now could result in outsized returns as investors are prematurely giving up on the turnaround. As such, those delays do not impact the overall thesis, which remains valid.
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Intel would regain both process and product leadership by 2024/25.ĭespite much recent ado among investors about the latest product delays, those products were conceived under prior management.
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The initial investment thesis was that Intel ( NASDAQ: INTC) would turn around by improving its execution under new CEO Pat Gelsinger, who joined in February 2021.